► How the motoring world is changing at pace
► Automated driving set to be come the norm
► Mourn the passing of driving pleasure…
The 2016 Geneva motor show was a high-octane orgy of power, noise and speed, including a somewhat excessive new 260mph Bugatti. Multi-cylinder, maxi-volume soundtracks called the faithful to petrol-power prayer, via new cars from Aston, Ferrari, Porsche, Lamborghini, Jaguar and other testosterone totems.
But inside the bowels of the stands, in the sweaty interview rooms on the press days, the car bosses happily discussed the real-world future rather than their fast-car fantasies. The talk was of cars that do not pollute. About cars that drive themselves. They spoke more about ‘mobility’ than ‘driving’. As Nick Rogers, Jaguar Land Rover’s engineering boss told me: ‘In the next five years we’ll see more changes in the auto world than in the last 30 years’.
The educated guess is that fully autonomous cars will be used on motorways in about five years, and on all roads in 10-20 years. There’s little doubt the technology will be ready by then. The only doubts concern liabilities, legislation and customer enthusiasm. The changes to the car world will be profound.
While zero-polluting electric cars are clearly bad news for the oil industry, autonomous cars are probably very bad news for the car industry. As Sebastian Thrun, the German-born visionary behind Google’s driverless car said: ‘There could be a huge reduction in the number of cars, owing to car-sharing possibilities. At any one time about 96% of cars are parked, frequently ruining the look of our cities. If after a commute to work, you waved goodbye to your car, and it went home to drive other members of your family or friends, think of the benefits.’
You, I and Sebastian can see the upside. I’m not sure Toyota and Ford do. Plus, as truly autonomous cars are so different from current cars, so the motor industry will face serious challenges from the tech sector. This is where Apple may enter the ‘hardware’ car business, as opposed to ‘merely’ offering CarPlay-like connectivity. Apple and Google could become car-makers, just as Ford, Volvo and Toyota become ‘tech’ companies.
The car will change. Fully autonomous cars won’t crash, so all the deadweight of anti-intrusion beams, crash structures, airbags and safety cells will be redundant. Today’s trend to make cars like armoured personnel carriers, especially with SUVs, will be reversed. Cars will be lighter, use fewer resources and be much greener to manufacture, as well to use.
Their design will be different. Forget about ‘driver-focused’ cockpits. As there is no need for a steering wheel or pedals, cabins will be passenger-focused. There are safety benefits here, too. Pedals can cause appalling foot and leg injuries, one reason the ’50s Citroën DS was so brilliant (it had floor buttons not pedals). And of course electric vehicles should have different design architectures anyway, as there is no need for big radiators, multi-speed gearboxes or bulky engine bays. The only car-maker that is beginning to take advantage of proper EV architectures is BMW, with its i division.
Think how our cities will be improved! For the first time, ever, our city streets will be clean. Before the car, streets and pavements were filthy with excrement (latterly mostly from horses). Now, the air is filthy with fumes. There should be no need for ugly street furniture warning drivers about speed limits, parking regulations etc. Our clever cars will know all this. No traffic lights, as these new-breed cars will ‘talk’ to each other. No traffic jams, either.
Truly our grandchildren will wonder what an irresponsible and dangerous world we inhabited, scarcely believing that we were once responsible for driving vast two-ton ‘tanks’ at up to 70mph, living in an age when 1.25 million people died a year in road traffic accidents, invariably caused by human error. Plus, we used vehicles that poisoned the very air we breathe. Extraordinary!
I can imagine the scene, 40 years hence, when a group of enthusiasts persuade the authorities to close the M1 for a commemoration of classic cars – rather as the Flying Scotsman recently ran from Kings Cross to York. The Bugatti Chiron, Lamborghini Centenario, Porsche 911R, Ferrari GTC4 Lusso, Aston DB11 – 2016 Geneva Show stars all – are driven by ageing enthusiasts, clearly revelling in the pleasure of driving once more.
Thousands cheer, while covering their mouths for fear of being poisoned. Inside the cars, the drivers can be seen shedding a tear, for a lost world of driving pleasure.
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