Electric cars will one day rule the roads. But, like a G-Wiz on a long journey, they will take a long time to get there.
Various auto ignoramuses, among them ex-PM Gordon Brown, have hinted that new-generation EVs will proliferate as quickly as daffodils in spring. Don’t believe it. This is a slow process. Especially in Europe, where fuel-parsimonious (and inexpensive) diesels dominate and we mostly live in urban flats, not ideally suited for recharging kerbside cars.
The Chevrolet Volt: a minority taste
The Chevrolet Volt and its European-badge offspring, the Vauxhall/Opel Ampera, will sell slowly, at least initially. (GM’s European ambitions are modest.) While more affluent Americans may jump on the Volt bandwagon, attracted by its novelty and keen to support high-profile US innovation, its benefits in diesel-dominated Europe are much more arcane. Plus its cost will be higher.
Range extenders are a big part of the future, no doubt. But they’ll enjoy a slow sales ramp-up. We Europeans have no track record at paying a premium price for a piece of technology whose sole virtue is its greenness.
Nissan Leaf: influential but not a big seller
The other high profile new electric car is of course the Nissan Leaf, which uses battery EV tech only (no petrol motor as a back-up generator). It is thus a much purer EV. The Volt is a bit like a reformed smoker who’s cut down to one a day. The Leaf represents total abstinence.
I suspect the Leaf will do well in America and Japan, at least initially, where various green preeners – both private and corporate – rush in, keen to broadcast their clear consciences. The sales slog for the dealers will begin when these early adopters have been satisfied and the Leaf will have to fight, mostly on cost and practical grounds, with other C-segment cars.
I am fascinated by the Leaf, and enjoy driving it. It’s a worthy European Car of the Year. But I would only recommend it as a second car, a category of vehicle that is well understood in America – but less common in Europe. Furthermore, the Leaf only makes sense in cities. Which is where Europeans are least likely to have, or want, a second car.
Diesels and cleaner petrol cars to dominate
So in Europe there will be no sales stampede. Our small diesel cars, especially when embroidered with stop-start and regenerative braking, are too good, too practical, too inexpensive, to face stiff competition from a range-limited EV.
So why will EVs work long term? Government tax policies will help to mandate their success; their ease-of-use, quietness and lack of stench will grow in public appeal; a booming infrastructure of charging stations will mitigate their impracticality; fine new diverse offerings will persuade punters to give them a go; manufacturers will have to produce more EVs to meet stricter CO2 targets. So the Leaf is hugely influential. It just won’t become a common sight on British or European roads any time soon.
Overwhelmingly, we will continue to buy petrol or diesel cars, improved by the latest electro-controls, superintended by stop-start, regulated by fuel-saving regenerative braking.
The biggest automotive carbon savings, at least for the next decade or so, won’t come from EVs, range-extended EV/hybrids or Prius-style ‘pure’ hybrids. In Europe, their volumes will be too small to make a significant difference to total emissions. Rather, the big carbon savings will come as millions of people buy substantially more economical and affordable new-generation petrol and diesel cars, continuing to reduce average ‘car parc’ CO2.
Put another way, those millions of diesel engines made at Ford’s Dagenham factory in east London (which also supplies Land Rover, Jaguar and Peugeot) have done more to cut total European vehicle CO2 emissions than all the Priuses put together. I just wish someone would tell a Westminster politician that.